Noura Bashshur | February 20, 2025
Every federal contractor knows the importance of relationships in business development and capture. But what happens when the people driving procurement decisions shift dramatically—and the trusted agency contacts you’ve spent years cultivating suddenly leave?
That’s exactly what’s unfolding in 2025, as federal agencies experience widespread leadership turnover, mission realignments, and staff transitions. The incoming administration is not just shifting policy—it’s reshaping the federal workforce, which means procurement priorities, evaluation criteria, and agency engagement strategies are all in flux.
For contractors, this is both a risk and an opportunity. Firms that fail to track these shifts risk losing pipeline traction, access to decision-makers, and competitive positioning. Those that understand the patterns of federal workforce turnover and adjust their BD and capture strategies accordingly will be the ones that continue winning contracts despite the uncertainty.
This post breaks down:
- Why agency turnover in 2025 is more disruptive than usual.
- How workforce shifts impact contract opportunities.
- How BD and capture teams should adapt to maintain a competitive edge.
1. The 2025 Workforce Transition: More Disruption Than Normal
Federal transitions always come with staff changes, but 2025 is shaping up to be a perfect storm of workforce disruption for several reasons:
Key Trends Driving Federal Workforce Turnover
- High-Level Political Appointee Turnover
- Every administration brings in new political appointees, but the 2025 transition is expected to see a particularly aggressive overhaul.
- Cabinet-level secretaries, agency heads, and senior procurement officials are changing—and with them, procurement priorities.
- Agencies like DHS, DoD, and Energy are seeing early shakeups, influencing multi-billion-dollar program decisions.
- Retirement Surge in Federal Procurement and Program Management Roles
- The federal workforce is aging, with nearly 30% of acquisition professionals eligible for retirement in 2025.
- Many experienced program managers and procurement officers are choosing to leave rather than transition under a new administration.
- This means institutional knowledge loss, and new staff may take time to get up to speed—delaying procurements or shifting priorities.
- Contracting Officer and Program Manager Realignments
- Even career federal employees are being reassigned, promoted, or shifting agencies as part of restructuring efforts.
- This directly impacts pre-award procurements—program managers who wrote early requirements may no longer be in place when the RFP is issued.
- If contractors aren’t tracking personnel shifts, they risk engaging the wrong people or missing key influence windows.
Why This Matters for Contractors
- Pipeline stability is at risk – If your key agency contacts change, your capture positioning could be reset.
- Procurement priorities could shift – A new program manager or agency head could reprioritize projects, delaying or canceling previously active opportunities.
- Incumbents are vulnerable – A new agency official may want to reconsider existing contracts, creating openings for challengers.
If contractors don’t stay ahead of these changes, they could lose competitive positioning overnight.
2. How Workforce Turnover Impacts Contracting and Capture Strategies
To navigate the federal workforce shakeup, contractors must understand how these transitions impact procurement.
Key Impacts on Contracting Opportunities
- Delayed or Rewritten Solicitations
- New leadership often means re-evaluated priorities—solicitations in draft or pre-RFP stages may get delayed or rewritten.
- Agencies may hold off on issuing final RFPs until new leadership confirms program direction.
- Impact: If your team has been pursuing an opportunity for months, it could suddenly disappear, change scope, or face new competition.
- Shifting Evaluation Criteria in Source Selections
- When new procurement officials take over, evaluation priorities often shift.
- Example: If an RFP was previously weighted towards technical innovation, a new contracting officer might prioritize cost competitiveness instead.
- Impact: Firms must monitor amendments and evaluation criteria adjustments carefully—what won last year might not win in 2025.
- Increased Sole-Source and Directed Awards
- Agencies experiencing staff shortages or decision-making bottlenecks may rely more heavily on directed awards and small business set-asides.
- This means opportunities could be pulled from full-and-open competition and awarded to an 8(a), HUBZone, or SDVOSB instead.
- Impact: Firms without set-aside qualifications should build strategic teaming relationships with small businesses to stay competitive.
- Surprise Recompetes and Incumbent Turnover
- New leadership often re-evaluates existing contracts, potentially opening recompete windows earlier than expected.
- Example: A large IT services contract that was previously set for renewal could be pushed into recompete due to new leadership's review.
- Impact: Incumbents must reinforce relationships aggressively, while challengers should track shifting priorities to capitalize on openings.
3. How BD and Capture Teams Can Adapt to Workforce Shakeups
1. Implement Federal Workforce Intelligence Tracking
- Monitor key personnel changes in real time.
- Use market intelligence tools to track agency org charts, key decision-makers, and leadership changes.
- Build relationships beyond just one point of contact—contracting success should never rely on a single champion.
2. Engage More Deeply in Early Market Research
- Attend Industry Days, RFIs, and early-stage capability briefings to establish credibility before decision-makers change.
- Focus on understanding new leadership’s priorities early—what worked before may not work now.
- If a key contact leaves, immediately engage their replacement with tailored insights to establish rapport.
3. Position for Sole-Source and Small Business Awards
- If a prime contractor, team with small businesses that may receive directed awards.
- If a small business, position aggressively for upcoming sole-source opportunities.
4. Assume Every Incumbent Position Is at Risk
- Proactively defend existing contracts by re-engaging agency leadership, reinforcing value delivery, and securing extensions before recompetes are forced.
- If not an incumbent, monitor for contracts that could be vulnerable due to leadership changes, and position for a takeover strategy.
Final Thoughts: Navigating Workforce Turnover as a Competitive Advantage
The 2025 federal workforce shakeup isn’t just a challenge—it’s a strategic opportunity for firms that know how to adapt faster than their competitors.
- BD and capture strategies must evolve to track personnel shifts, procurement priority changes, and evolving evaluation criteria.
- Firms that stay ahead of agency realignments will be the ones that capitalize on new openings and mitigate pipeline disruptions.
- Success in 2025 will belong to contractors who master the art of navigating change—because in federal procurement, agility wins.
The question is: Will you be ready when your key agency contacts move on?
